NASCAR preseason top 15 rankings

Less then a month out from the start of the 2006 NASCAR NEXTEL Cup season, Gilbert Sam, Jr. ranks NASCAR's preseason top 15. (Based on off-season driver, team changes, end of 2005 momentum, past driver history.)

1. Tony Stewart - Why 1st: Coming off career best NEXTEL Cup season Tony Stewart is aiming for back-to-back NEXTEL Cup titles, and returning to New York City as Champion. No off-season changes on the Home Depot team, and maybe a better cast of drivers at Joe Gibbs could lead to better overall performance.

Why Not 1st: He's the defending champion, until a sign of trouble he remains #1.

2. Jeff Gordon - Why 2nd: Look for Gordon to be back to typical Jeff Gordon Championship form. A career worst year for Gordon since his 1993 rookie year.  Gordon finished off 2005 with 1 win, 3 top 5s, 4 top 10s, and cumulating the most points in the final 5 races with new Crew Chief Steve Letarte.

Why Not 2nd: Everyone can say, yes, he is coming off worst year and can Jeff Gordon really recover? Can the Dupont crew and Gordon continue the late 2005 success?

3. Greg Biffle - Why 3rd: With a break out year in 2005 everything returns in place. Biffle dominated much of 2005, with six wins, only one DNF, and completing 98% of the laps, scratch the late season Texas run he would be 2005 NEXTEL Cup champion. Biffle is only behind two multiply time champions.

Why Not 3rd: Before 2005 Biffle's career best NEXTEL Cup season finish was 17th in 2004, and 20th in 2003. Can Biffle continue the success through 2006? And will the new Ford Fusion play any affect?

4. Mark Martin - Why 4th: This is really it, yes, final opportunity for Mark to win that coveted NEXTEL Cup title. Martin wants it more than anyone in the field, forget the going away ceremonies and he just wants race to win.

Why Not 4th? The first sign of trouble will he remain confident he can win it all?

5. Jimmie Johnson - Why 5th: With a few off-season team changes Johnson should be back in form. With matching a career worst 5th in points in 2005, since his rookie year is not acceptable for a driver and team that wins.

Why Not 5th: Can Johnson put together a full chase run, that including, running well at Talladega and Homestead? Johnson has failed to win at a superspeedway, road course and only one win at a short track. And was there anything to the rumor of Crew Chief Chad Knaus leaving Hendrick?

6. Ryan Newman - Why 6th: Newman can and will only benefit from new teammate Kurt Busch, Newman will likely see instant improvement in team communications. Newman can only learn more from Champion teammate Busch.

Why Not 6th: Can Newman steadily put together a run for the Championship late? He has yet to prove it, and will Newman take a few tips from Busch on patience.

7. Matt Kenseth - Why 7th: Since 2003 Championship title Kenseth has yet to return in the top 6 in points, and late 2005 successful run should have him a solid top 10 run in 2006.

Why Not 7th: Is there any possibility Robbie Reiser may not be Crew Chief in 2007? With the new Fusion, testing dates cut back, have any affect on Kenseth?

8. Kurt Busch - Why 8th: Busch coming off a tumultuous late 2005 season, should be fine coming to a championship caliber team at Penske. Its the question of how long it will take for Busch to settle with his new Penske team.

Why Not 8th: Will the move from a dominate Ford team to a two car Dodge team play any affect on Busch? Will Busch recover from the late 2005 trouble, and rebuild his already damaged image?

9. Carl Edwards - Why 9th: With no off-season changes, the sophomore driver tasted stardom in his rookie year. With the on-track time he gets in Busch and Cup each week he knows how to drive.

Why Not 9th: This season with higher expectations, can Edwards shake any sophomore jinx? Will he continue his Cup/Busch success?

10. Elliott Sadler - Why 10th: Gaining new Crew Chief Tommy Baldwin should help a M&M's team that fell in mid-late 2005. Baldwin brings a attitude to a team that needs to go the next level. Yates is determine for success for that "second" team.

Why Not 10th: Sadler only has one career top 10 season finish coming in 2004. Some many say, Sadler is not so deserving when stars like Earnhardt, Jr. and Harvick are outside the top 10 ranking. 

11. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - Why 11th: Coming off 2005 Earnhardt, Jr. & cousin Tony, Jr. has much to prove and lot of work ahead. With new teammate Martin Truex, Jr. will improve team communications, and fit driving styles of each other. Earnhardt Jr. will look to put that dismal 2005 season behind him with strong 2006 run.

Why Not 11th: Even with Tony Eury, Jr. late in 2005 (final 10 races), Earnhardt still struggled only collecting 3 top 10's and 5 finishes outside the top 30. Can Eury, Jr. and Earnhardt, Jr. really reproduced past success?

12. Kevin Harvick - Why 12th: Harvick who has finished back-to-back years in 14th in points, who blasted upon the Cup series taking over #3 ride. Now in the final year of the contract, Harvick is waiting it out to see the results of 2006, no other driver wants to see more success in that Goodwrench car then Harvick himself.  Harvick and Co. looks for a strong showing, and to be Chase contender.

Why Not 12th: Could Harvick's ownership of Busch, Truck teams have his focus elsewhere? 

13. Jamie McMurray - Why #13: Joining Roush, and a championship crew former #97 team, could take McMurray to the next level.  With a welcomed change for both, the question is how long will it take McMurray to adjust to new Ford Fusion?

Why Not #13: No reason to think McMurray will match his career worst season performance 13th in 2003 on a dominate Ford team. Will the new team and driver experience success from the beginning?

14. Kyle Busch - Why 14th: Kyle Busch coming off a rookie year with two wins, will only better his 2005 season performance of 20th.  Busch will experience no sophomore jinx, Hendrick drivers only get better in their second season, and Busch is no exception.

Why Not 14th: Eight DNFs in 2005, and 12 career DNFs in a short career, can lead to less then desirable results. With 3 DNFs in final eight races can be worrisome entering 2006.

15. Dale Jarrett - Why 15th: With new Crew Chief Slugger Labbe, could take a few races to translate in strong runs. Jarrett fell into mid-late season slump beginning in August, if Jarrett can get a steady start in 2006, no reason to think he'll make his first Chase appearance.

Why Not 15th: With Jarrett's best season finish 15th in last 3 years, (26th in 2003, 15th in 2004) lots of unknowns with the team and new Ford Fusion for a two car team. And will Jarrett return in 2007 with Yates?

Also see Gilbert's Week 2 Power Rankings

Look for Gilbert's weekly rankings on Monday's after each NASCAR NEXTEL Cup race. To reach Gilbert e-mail him at GNEXTHIS@GMAIL.com

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